The potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency is likely to have profound effects on the political dynamics within the EU. European political and corporate leaders will need to consider several major issues including transatlantic relations, the rise of populism and right-wing movements, acceleration of EU strategic autonomy and increased pressure on the EU decision-making process by external forces.

Transatlantic Relations

Rise of Populist and Far-Right Movements Across Europe

Populist movements across the EU, fueled by anti-immigrant sentiment, economic difficulties, and the so-called “euroscepticism,” seem to have gained momentum. Trump’s possible reelection might further inspire these groups by providing a successful model of anti-establishment politics. For instance, in Germany, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has formed a new group in the European Parliament, indicating a surge in populist confidence.

Similarly, France’s far-right National Rally has joined the Patriots for Europe bloc initiated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, now the third-largest group in the EU Parliament. These developments could lead to a more fragmented and polarized EU Parliament, complicating decision-making processes and weakening the bloc’s unified stance on critical issues. Furthermore, Trump’s populist rhetoric and differences in cultural and social policies could add further complexity to transatlantic relations and amplify similar movements within the EU, possibly leading to political instability and challenges in maintaining overall EU cohesion.

Acceleration of EU Strategic Autonomy

In response to the unpredictability of the US ally, the EU will most likely expedite its push towards strategic autonomy, which includes independent decisions and actions in defense, economic and diplomatic areas. Initiatives like the European Defense Fund and joint military procurement demonstrate the EU’s intent to become self-reliant, especially when it comes to security matters, which brings greater nation-state accountability in itself.

Furthermore, EU’s support for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict with Russia additionally illustrates its unwavering commitment to asserting its role in regional security, regardless of possible changes in US foreign policy. Finally, Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy will urge the EU to seek a foreign relations approach that counterbalances the shift in US global activities, seeking alternative allies and partners.

Increased Pressure on EU Decision-Making Processes

The above developments combined could lead to a more fragmented and polarized EU Parliament complicating decision-making processes and weakening the bloc’s unified stance^[2] on critical issues. The recent alliances among right-wing parties^[3] also demonstrate the growing coordination and influence of populist forces, which are already shifting EU policies^[4] on immigration, national sovereignty and relations with the US and Russia.

The consequences for the EU decision-making process could be rather grave and include the following components:

The potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency will most likely have a profound effect on the defense dynamics within the EU.

Key areas of concern include the pressure on NATO and defense spending, the acceleration of independent EU defense initiatives, shifts in regional security dynamics and an emphasis on EU’s military-industrial complex.

Pressure on NATO and Defense Spending

Trump’s previous criticism of European-NATO allies over their defense spending caused significant tensions within the alliance. His potential return could reignite these issues, with increased demands for EU members to boost their military budgets. This pressure may lead to a reassessment of NATO’s role and structure pushing EU countries to enhance their own defense capabilities independently.

During Trump’s first term, his policy of reduced NATO engagement inadvertently encouraged adversaries like Russia to step-up their domain of influence, prompting the EU to manage its security more independently. This scenario is likely to recur once again, deepening the rift between the US and Europe. European leaders, anticipating another period of unpredictable US foreign policy, are exploring independent defense strategies to mitigate the impact of diminished US engagement.

Acceleration of Independent EU Defense Initiatives

In response to the unpredictability of the US ally, the EU will have no choice but to expedite its push towards strategic autonomy. Initiatives like the European Defense Fund and Joint Military Procurement demonstrate the EU’s intent to become self-reliant, especially when it comes to security matters. The focus will be on building strong and independent defense mechanisms to counterbalance the reduced reliability on US support. The following steps have been already considered:

• Deepening Integration:Accelerating the development of a common security and defense policy (CSDP) to create a more cohesive European defense architecture.
• Pooling and Sharing:Maximizing resources through joint procurement, research and development.
• Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO):Expanding PESCO projects to create a more robust European defense capability.

EU’s ongoing support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia has already demonstrated European commitment to a more assertive role in regional security. This commitment is likely to drive further investment in independent defense initiatives, enhancing the EU’s ability to respond to security challenges without totally relying on US or NATO.

Shifts in Regional Security Dynamics and New Strategic Partnerships

The potential changes in US engagement when it comes to European security under a Trump presidency could drastically change regional security dynamics. The EU will have to adapt to a new security landscape where US involvement is less predictable or even completely absent by diversifying its relationships. Central to this change is likely to be the cultivation of new strategic partnerships.

Several countries of the European Union have already discussed creating alternative partnerships or even smaller security blocks as a response to the growing Russian threat and other security challenges. Potential partners could include:

• Other NATO Allies: While the US is a key NATO member, other allies such as Canada, the UK and France could assume more significant roles in European security. These countries possess substantial military capabilities and share common security interests with the EU. France has already stepped up its role and indicated its theoretical preparedness even to expand nuclear defense over the entire EU bloc if necessary. UK stands as another nuclear capable country, which can contribute to the nuclear deterrence for the European Union on a mutually beneficial basis.
• Nordic and Baltic States: These countries have demonstrated a strong commitment to defense spending and have been consistently upgrading their military capabilities over the past decade. They could become key partners in various regional security cooperation groups.
• Australia and New Zealand: These Indo-Pacific nations have advanced defense industries and share similar security concerns with Europe. Partnering with them could provide access to new technologies and intelligence.
• South Korea: With a growing defense industry and technological advancements, South Korea could offer opportunities for cooperation in areas like missile defense and cybersecurity.
• Japan: The EU and Japan have been increasing security cooperation (especially after the signing of the EU-Japan Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2018)^[5] and building a strong partnership which includes intense dialogues on new defense technology, maritime security and risk management.

Assessing the military implications for the EU, it is important to highlight that the possible reelection of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States raises several important questions for the European Union in the context of the war in Ukraine.

One particularly pressing issue is whether the EU can replace the US as the principal financier of Ukraine’s war efforts. Trump’s team has repeatedly asserted that Europe should bear the primary financial burden of this conflict. However, there are several critical issues undermining EU’s ability to become the leading donor including EU’s economic capacity, internal cohesion, military capabilities and the broader geopolitical dynamics involving NATO and Russia.

Despite EU’s economic challenges following the start of the war in Ukraine, it remains one of the wealthiest regions globally.^[10] In 2023, EU’s combined GDP exceeded $18 trillion.^[11] This figure excludes contributions from non-EU countries like the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, which have also been significant donors to Ukraine. Yet, raw economic figures do not directly translate into guaranteed support for Ukraine. Several critical issues undermine EU’s ability to become the leading donor.

• Internal Divisions and Lack of Unifying Force: There is a considerable split between EU bureaucracy and national political elites, which affects the block’s ability to support Ukraine financially.^[12] This internal disagreement makes it difficult to mobilize the necessary economic resources. The absence of a leading power to keep Europe united contributes to fragmented decision-making processes further complicating any efforts to allocate and manage substantial financial support for Ukraine. Without a central “figure” to drive policy, EU’s economic potential remains limited.^[13] Trump’s return could exacerbate these divisions, as his administration may reduce coordination and support for collective EU efforts.
• Absence of a Clear Geopolitical Agenda: As a block of 27 nations, the EU lacks a unified geopolitical strategy, which results in inconsistent and often conflicting approaches to foreign policy and financial aid. This ambiguity undermines EU’s ability to present a strong, united front capable of matching US financial support.^[14] The EU bureaucracy, without US backing, struggles even to articulate, let alone implement, a coherent economic strategy to support Ukraine effectively. Trump’s potential disengagement from international alliances could further destabilize EU’s geopolitical coherence.

The likelihood of Donald Trump returning to the US presidency could introduce significant economic risks for the European Union.

The anticipated “America First” program and other initiatives are expected to materialize in protectionist trade measures, create economic uncertainty, diminish technological collaboration and alter energy security policies. These policies are likely to affect global supply chains, potentially disrupting or redirecting them, which could severely impact EU’s economic stability and growth.

Trade Tensions and Potential Trade Wars

During Trump’s previous tenure, he managed to implement various protectionist measures,^[19] including tariffs on steel and aluminum imports worth $80 billion, which significantly impacted EU exports. If he returns to office, similar policies could be reinstated leading to increased costs for European goods entering the US market.^[20] This would force EU exporters to either cover these costs themselves, reduce their profit margins or pass them on to consumers, potentially reducing their competitiveness in the US market.

To mitigate these impacts, the EU has started diversifying its trade relationships,^[21] seeking alternative markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Recent EU trade agreements with Japan and the Mercosur countries^[22] prove that the block is expanding market access beyond traditional partners. Similar initiatives have been observed in various countries of North Africa, where EU corporations have been actively building relationships with local authorities and businesses.^[23] However, this process is fraught with numerous problems stemming from varied approaches by EU member-states and the level of collaboration between certain EU countries and their counterparts in other regions.

In addition, any downward shifts in investments are likely to result in reduced job creation^[28] in sectors that depend on foreign capital causing all kinds of economic problems across Europe. Finally, these effects could lower consumer confidence and spending, which are essential elements of the EU internal market.^[29]

Digital and Technological Collaboration

The US and the EU have historically been strong partners in various digital and technological sectors. Trump’s return could hinder these collaborations as announced in his program, with policies that would favor domestic over international technological development.^[30] This will impact joint research initiatives,^[31] technology transfer and the overall pace of innovation and technological advancement within the EU.

In response, the EU will have to increase investments in technological infrastructure and research, which would be hard due to already present signs of economic stagnation and the ever-growing expenses on support for Ukraine. Therefore, the EU is likely to seek new partnerships with other technologically advanced regions such as East Asia,^[32] which will inevitably change the overall technological development doctrine and direction within the bloc.

Repercussions for Energy Security and Supply Chains

Energy security and supply chains are critical areas where the EU could face challenges should Trump return to the presidency. Trump’s energy policies have historically favored the fossil fuel industry promoting^[33] increased oil, gas and in some cases even coal production while rolling back on environmental regulations. This approach contradicts with the EU’s so called “Green Agenda,” which aims to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 through considerable investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable technologies.^[34]

Trump’s administration is likely to prioritize fossil fuel exports,^[35] including liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. On one hand, this could lead to increased reliance on US fossil fuels and probable undermining of the EU’s renewable energy goals. On the other hand, increased US oil and gas exports to Europe could contribute for a certain stabilization of oil prices in the region and a disruption in Europe’s reliance on Russian oil.

Transatlantic Energy Cooperation

Another aspect of the US energy policy under Trump is what is referred to as Transatlantic Energy Cooperation. In a scenario where the US energy program focuses more on domestic priorities^[36] and less on international energy cooperation there could even be a possible reduction in LNG exports to Europe or less favorable terms for such exports. Given Europe’s ongoing efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas, any disruption in LNG supplies^[37] from the US would represent major challenges for the EU energy security.

Faced with such uncertainty, the EU is likely to seek alternative energy suppliers^[38] including countries like Qatar, Algeria and Norway. To deal with the proper and balanced distribution of energy resources, the EU will have to establish a unified energy market^[39] and invest in cross-border energy projects. First indications that EU leaders have realized the potential dangers is their increased commitment to various initiatives like the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) and the Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E). However, all these efforts are in their inception phase, burdened by bureaucracy and competing interests of EU member states.